Prediction Market Guides

How Prediction Markets Work →

Binary contracts, implied probabilities, and how CFTC regulation works — the foundational explainer.

News Ripple Analysis →

How one news event ripples through second-order effects to move several tradable markets — and how our News-page tool maps those chains.

How to Choose a Prediction Market →

A beginner's decision framework for picking a platform in 2026.

How to Trade on Kalshi →

Step-by-step 2026 walkthrough: signup, funding, and placing your first trade.

How to Trade on Polymarket →

Offshore (USDC on Polygon) vs Polymarket US (CFTC-regulated via QCEX), step by step.

Prediction Market Tax Guide →

Which platforms issue 1099s, how to self-report, and Section 1256 treatment.

Kalshi Tax Guide →

How Kalshi reports to the IRS, the 1099 it issues, and Section 1256 60/40 treatment.

Polymarket Tax Guide →

Why there's no 1099, how USDC-settled PnL is taxed, and how to track it.

Are Prediction Markets Legal in Your State? →

State-by-state legal status across all 50 states + DC, plus the federal-vs-state litigation map.

The CFTC's 2026 Prediction-Markets Rule (NPRM) →

What the June 2026 proposed rule would permit vs prohibit, and how it interacts with the state lawsuits.

Prediction Markets as Economic Indicators →

Using Kalshi's CPI, FOMC, and GDP markets as real-time economic forecasting tools.

Prediction Markets vs Polls →

Why markets outperform polls — evidence from the 2024 election and Federal Reserve research.

Prediction Market API Trading →

Programmatic trading: Kalshi REST/WebSocket and Polymarket CLOB APIs.