Prediction Market Movers
The biggest 7-day moves in CFTC-regulated economic-indicator markets, as live market-implied probabilities from Kalshi contract prices.
Biggest weekly moves
| Market | Implied probability | 7-day change | 30-day trend | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC · SEP 16Fed funds rate above 3.75% | 59% | +24 | 26%–59% | 53K |
| FOMC · DEC 9Fed funds rate above 3.75% | 77% | +22 | 52%–77% | 6.6K |
| CPI · SEP 11CPI inflation (YoY) above 3.3% | 53% | -17 | 51%–80% | 2.4K |
| CPI · SEP 11CPI inflation (YoY) above 3.8% | 1% | +10 | 1%–11% | 50.4K |
| GDP · OCT 30Real GDP growth above 2.5% | 48% | -7 | 40%–63% | 72 |
| GDP · APR 29Real GDP growth above 3.5% | 20% | -5 | 14%–48% | 57 |
| JOBS · SEP 4Unemployment (U-3) above 4.2% | 24% | +3 | 21%–42% | 19.8K |
| NFP · SEP 4Nonfarm payrolls above 20,000 | 63% | -2 | 62%–72% | 11.3K |
Market-implied probabilities from live Kalshi contract prices; the 7-day change is the move in implied probability over the trailing week, and 24h volume is contracts traded. Not a forecast by PredictorHQ.
How to read the board
Each row is a single Kalshi event contract on a US economic indicator. The implied probability is the contract price read as a percentage; the 7-day change is how far that probability moved over the trailing week — a fast repricing usually follows fresh data or a shift in Fed expectations. The board only covers Kalshi, the CFTC-designated contract market with the deepest economic-indicator coverage.
For the background on why these markets track macro releases, see the economic indicators guide, how contract prices become probabilities in how prediction markets work, and the latest regulatory developments on the news index. Our methodology explains how we source and verify the underlying data.