Prediction Markets for Macro Investors:
Compare the Top Platforms

Prediction markets crossed $64 billion in annual trading volume in 2025. They now appear on Robinhood, Webull, CNN, and CNBC. The Federal Reserve published research validating them as more accurate than Bloomberg consensus for CPI and FOMC forecasting. This is no longer a niche product.

Yet every prediction market comparison site on the internet is written for sports bettors. They rank platforms by sign-up bonuses. They use orange color schemes. They mention "promo codes." They have no concept of CFTC regulation, IRS Form 1099, or the difference between a Designated Contract Market and an offshore gambling site.

This site exists to fill that gap. We cover prediction markets the same way a Bloomberg terminal covers derivatives: with exact fee structures, regulatory status, tax implications, and use-case fit for the investors who actually need this information.

Our coverage criteria: We only review platforms with CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) licenses or equivalent federal regulatory status. We do not cover offshore prediction markets, platforms without financial regulation, or platforms optimized for gambling rather than financial trading.

Most prediction market comparison content treats platforms like sportsbooks — ranking by welcome bonus, market count, and mobile app ratings. For investors, those metrics are nearly irrelevant. Here is what actually matters:

1. CFTC Designation (Non-Negotiable)

A CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) license is the highest regulatory standard for a US prediction market. It means the platform has met federal capital requirements, maintains segregated customer funds, operates under CFTC surveillance, and is subject to audit. Platforms without DCM status — regardless of how many markets they offer or how low their fees are — carry regulatory risk that is inappropriate for investor-grade use.

As of mid-2026, CFTC DCM-licensed retail prediction market platforms include: Kalshi, Polymarket (via QCEX acquisition, July 2025), Fanatics Markets, DraftKings, FanDuel Predicts (via CME Group JV), and Underdog (via Aristotle Exchange acquisition, March 2026). PredictIt is the notable exception — it operates under CFTC no-action relief, not a DCM license (the reported January 2026 upgrade was erroneous).

2. Economic Markets (The Investor Differentiator)

Of all the platforms listed above, only Kalshi offers CFTC-approved contracts on CPI, FOMC rate decisions, GDP, and unemployment. These are the markets that make prediction platforms useful for macro investors rather than merely entertaining for sports fans.

When evaluating a platform, the first question should be: does it have economic indicator markets? If not, its utility for a macro investor is limited to political event trading — useful, but not the primary value proposition.

3. Tax Reporting (1099)

Prediction market winnings are taxable in the US. The question is who does the paperwork. PredictIt issues Form 1099 to US traders with $600 or more of net profit in a calendar year, and Underdog reports prediction trades to the IRS through its futures broker, UDM, including on Form 1099-B. Kalshi does not issue a 1099 for event-contract profits; it provides a monthly profit-and-loss statement (Account → Tax Info). Robinhood does not issue a 1099 for event-contract trades and does not report them to the IRS; it provides an annual event-contract statement, which it says is not a substitute tax form. Polymarket US's participant agreement covers electronic delivery of tax forms including Form 1099-B, but Polymarket has not said whether one is issued for event-contract profits. Opinion Trade issues no 1099 — users must track every trade and calculate gains themselves.

For professional investors who pay accountants or file complex returns, check which document each platform actually provides before relying on it — a profit-and-loss statement and a Form 1099 are not the same thing.

4. USD Deposit (No Crypto Barrier)

Opinion Trade and Polymarket's international app require USDC stablecoin — you need a crypto wallet, understand how to acquire USDC, and are comfortable with on-chain transactions (and US residents can only close existing positions on the international app, not open new ones). Kalshi, PredictIt, Fanatics, and Robinhood accept standard USD via ACH or wire transfer, and Polymarket US takes US dollars by debit card, bank transfer (ACH) or wire.

For investors whose portfolio is entirely in traditional financial instruments, the crypto requirement is not merely inconvenient — it introduces an additional asset class, wallet security considerations, and blockchain transaction risks that have nothing to do with prediction market trading.

5. Fee Structure (Read the Fine Print)

Platform fees in prediction markets are not simple percentage spreads. Kalshi uses a formula-based fee that varies with contract probability — higher near 50% (where uncertainty is maximum), lower near 0% or 100% (where outcomes are more certain). The taker fee is capped at $1.75 per 100 contracts, which represents a 1.75% maximum cost relative to notional.

Polymarket US uses a similar probability-based formula: a variable taker fee of up to ~1.74¢ per $1 contract at a 50¢ midpoint (Θ=0.0695 model since 25 September 2026, ≈ max $1.74 per 100 contracts), with maker rebates and free withdrawals. Taker costs are now about the same as Kalshi's; the difference is the maker rebate. PredictIt's 10% fee on profits is the most expensive structure in the space and is best avoided for active trading.

The US prediction market industry has undergone a structural transformation between 2024 and 2026. What was a two-platform market (Kalshi and PredictIt) has become a crowded field of CFTC-licensed exchanges — each targeting a different segment.

The macro investor segment is served exclusively by Kalshi. Its economic indicator markets — CPI, FOMC, GDP, unemployment — are CFTC-approved and unavailable anywhere else. The Fed research published in January 2026 transformed Kalshi from "interesting fintech product" to "empirically validated economic forecasting tool."

The global crypto-native segment is dominated by Polymarket's international app. With 1,200+ active markets, USDC-based non-custodial trading, and partnerships with the Wall Street Journal and CNN, it has become the primary venue for global event trading. The QCEX acquisition in July 2025 gave Polymarket a separate CFTC-regulated US venue, Polymarket US, which takes US dollars and holds cash in a custodial clearinghouse account; the international app is close-only for US residents, and its EU access is partially restricted — it is close-only in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Slovakia (you can close existing positions but not open new ones), and close-only on its website in Ireland and the Netherlands.

The sports-fan-to-investor conversion segment now has multiple entrants: DraftKings, Fanatics Markets (22 states + 4 US territories), FanDuel via CME Group JV, and Underdog (via its Aristotle Exchange acquisition). These platforms will generate large user bases through their sports market hooks, but their economics and cultural DNA are primarily sports-entertainment — not financial markets.

The political specialist segment still belongs to PredictIt — with a caveat. The widely reported January 2026 upgrade to full CFTC DCM + DCO status proved erroneous (that designation belongs to sister platform Aristotle Exchange); PredictIt continues under its 2014 no-action letter, whose per-contract cap was raised by CFTC Letter 25-20 (July 2025) to the FECA individual-contribution limit, currently $3,500. Its historical political data archive — available since 2014 — remains unmatched.

For most readers of this site, the relevant question is: Kalshi for economic indicator markets, or Polymarket US for its maker rebates and event markets, or both? See our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison for the full breakdown.