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Africa Prediction Market News — Nigeria, South Africa & Kenya

Africa's prediction markets sit in a regulatory gray zone: genuine platform activity in Nigeria and South Africa is advancing faster than the securities and gambling regulators addressing it.

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Written by · LinkedIn · Last updated:

Latest developments — Africa

  1. Research

    ENSafrica flags prediction markets as a South African regulatory gray zone

    In a legal analysis, law firm ENSafrica concluded that prediction markets fall into a South African gap spanning crypto regulation, exchange control, and derivatives law. Although the FSCA designated crypto assets as financial products under FAIS in 2022, it remains unresolved whether event-based prediction contracts are regulated derivatives or unregulated gambling — especially as South Africa’s National Gambling Amendment Act remains unproclaimed.

    Source: ENSafrica

  2. Regulation

    Kenya's new Gambling Regulatory Authority could eventually cover prediction markets

    Kenya’s Gambling Control Act took effect in August 2025, creating a Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) to replace the Betting Control and Licensing Board. As of April 2026 the GRA was still formulating its regulations; analysts note it could extend gambling-style oversight to platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, citing Singapore and the Netherlands, which treat event-contract trading as unlawful gambling.

    Source: TechWeez

  3. Launch

    Bayse Markets launches naira currency prediction markets in Nigeria

    Nigerian platform Bayse Markets (formerly Gowagr), which describes itself as Africa’s largest prediction market, launched a product letting users trade binary contracts on currency pairs including USD/NGN, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD. Contracts resolve using publicly verifiable CBN or FMDQ data, require no leverage, and cap risk at the trader’s stake (minimum ₦500).

    Source: Nairametrics

  4. Enforcement

    Lagos gaming regulator lists Bayse Markets' predecessor Gowagr as unlicensed

    The Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority (LSLGA) classifies the Nigerian prediction-market platform Bayse Markets — which previously operated as Gowagr — as an unlicensed gaming operator; “GOWAGR” appears on the regulator’s live list of unlicensed operators as a trade name of Proton Tech Limited. The regulator does not publish the listing date, and Bayse Markets continues to operate and expand in Nigeria.

    Source: Lagos State Lotteries & Gaming Authority

  5. Launch

    Luno launches crypto prediction markets in South Africa and Nigeria with Limitless

    South African crypto exchange Luno launched a prediction-markets product for users in South Africa and Nigeria, partnering with US infrastructure provider Limitless. Users forecast whether Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Dogecoin, or XRP will close above or below a target within a 24-hour window, settled in USDC (minimum 3 USDC). Luno said it will stay focused on crypto prices rather than expand to other real-world events.

    Source: TechCabal

  6. Regulation

    Nigeria's Investments and Securities Act 2025 leaves prediction markets in a gray zone

    President Bola Tinubu signed Nigeria’s Investments and Securities Act 2025 into law, replacing the 2007 Act and classifying digital assets — including cryptocurrencies and stablecoins — as securities under SEC oversight. The Act does not explicitly address non-trading prediction-market or crypto-gambling platforms; the SEC’s director-general has said the Commission plans to engage such platforms gradually.

    Source: TechCabal

  7. Regulation

    Kalshi bars Kenya among its restricted jurisdictions

    A Kalshi exchange notice amended its member agreement to bar users domiciled, organized, or located in a list of restricted jurisdictions from trading event contracts. Kenya appears by name, alongside other African countries including Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Libya, Mali, Namibia, Somalia, Sudan, and Zimbabwe.

    Source: Kalshi (exchange notice)

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Frequently asked questions

Are prediction markets legal in Africa?
Most African markets have no dedicated prediction-market rules, leaving them in a gray zone. Nigeria’s SEC oversees digital assets under the 2025 Investments and Securities Act but has not fully addressed prediction platforms; Lagos’s gaming authority lists at least one local platform as unlicensed. Kenya’s new gambling regulator is still writing its rules, and South African law firms describe the classification as unresolved.
Which prediction-market platforms operate in Africa?
Nigerian platform Bayse Markets (formerly Gowagr) operates locally and has expanded into currency contracts, and Luno launched a crypto-price prediction product with Limitless in South Africa and Nigeria. Access to some offshore platforms is restricted — Kalshi bars Kenyan users, for example.
Is Bayse Markets licensed?
The Lagos State Lotteries and Gaming Authority lists Bayse Markets’ predecessor name, Gowagr, among unlicensed operators. The platform continues to operate and expand in Nigeria; the regulatory status of prediction markets in Nigeria remains unsettled.