Are Prediction Markets Legal in Asia?
Last updated: April 2026 · Independent guide for Asia investors
Written by Stephan Kulik
Editor-in-Chief, PredictorHQ
Written for Asia investors by Stephan Kulik, editor-in-chief of PredictorHQ. General information on prediction-market legality — not legal advice.
Last updated: · LinkedIn
Prediction market legality varies more dramatically across Asia than any other region. Hong Kong tolerates gray-market access but its SFC-linked IFEC warns it may be illegal gambling. Singapore has banned Polymarket outright. Japan and Korea restrict broadly. Mainland China prohibits. This guide breaks down the major Asian markets.
Hong Kong (SFC and Virtual Asset Framework)
Hong Kong has an active virtual-asset licensing regime — the SFC issues Type 1 (dealing in securities) and Type 7 (automated trading) licenses, both held by the licensed exchange HashKey, and has approved spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. But no event-contract or prediction-market product is licensed under it: in 2026 the SFC-affiliated Investor and Financial Education Council (IFEC) warned that prediction-market trading may constitute illegal gambling and carries no investor protection.
Singapore (MAS and Payment Services Act)
Singapore handles prediction markets as a gambling matter: the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) declared Polymarket an unlicensed illegal gambling service under the Gambling Control Act 2022 and ISP-blocked it from January 2025, with users facing fines up to S$10,000. The MAS separately regulates digital-payment tokens under the Payment Services Act, but has issued no prediction-market authorisation.
Japan (FSA and JVCEA)
Japan has the FSA as financial regulator and JVCEA (Japan Virtual and Crypto Assets Exchange Association) for self-regulation. Crypto exchanges must be FSA-licensed. Most prediction markets are classified as gambling and prohibited under the Penal Code. Legal gambling is limited to a few state-run categories: public sports (horse racing via the JRA, KEIRIN cycle racing, and BOAT RACE), the public lottery (takarakuji), and football pools (toto).
South Korea (FSC, FSS, and Travel Rule)
Korea has the FSC and FSS for financial regulation. Korea implemented strict crypto regulations including the Travel Rule. Gambling is broadly prohibited except for seven state-licensed categories (casinos, horse/bicycle/motorboat racing, the lottery, Sports Toto, and bullfighting). Polymarket access via Korean wallets is technically restricted.
Mainland China and other markets
Mainland China prohibits gambling and has the most restrictive crypto regime in Asia (banned 2021). Access to global prediction markets is via VPN only and legally risky. Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam have varying degrees of restriction.
Important
This guide is general information and does not constitute legal advice. Prediction market regulation in Asia continues to evolve. Consult a qualified lawyer for advice specific to your situation.